OPEC holds oil steady and Binance reopens as Monday's test approaches

United States: S&P 500 7,580.07, down 1.82 percent Friday, down 0.57 percent week, down 0.93 percent month. Nasdaq 25,437.00, down 2.86 percent Friday, down 2.0 percent week, down 5.3 percent month. Dow 51,770.31, down 1.09 percent Friday, down 0.85 percent week, up 1.7 percent month. Russell 2000 2,811.84, down 1.66 percent. VIX 19.42, up 12.9 percent.

Canada: S&P/TSX Composite 35,620.03, down 1.74 percent Friday, steepest daily fall since June 5. Tech down 3 percent, materials down 4.8 percent, financials down 1.6 percent. Still up 1.09 percent for October.

Europe, Friday: DAX 25,818.21, down 0.85 percent; CAC 40 7,969.42, down 0.01 percent; FTSE 100 10,729.78, up 0.07 percent, per the morning briefing's Europe wrap.

Asia Pacific, Friday: Nikkei 225 63,290.11, down 2.12 percent; Hang Seng 23,294.42, up 1.46 percent; Shanghai 3,599.02, down 1.44 percent; KOSPI 5,730.74, down 3.48 percent; Nifty 50 23,053.10, up 0.51 percent; ASX 200 8,908.10, up 0.18 percent.

Oil: WTI 104.12 dollars, up 2.08 percent Friday, up 15.2 percent for October. January Brent 113.43 dollars, after the expiring December Brent contract closed at 117.64 dollars. Sunday, OPEC+ held December targets unchanged. The seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, kept September 2026 required production for December, about 31.01 million barrels a day combined, with the next full group meeting November 29 to set the 2027 framework. No new supply is being added, which leaves Hormuz risk, not OPEC+ policy, as the near term oil driver.

Gold about 3,881 to 3,899 dollars, down 3.3 to 3.5 percent Friday, and silver about 49.07 to 49.28 dollars, down 5.7 to 5.9 percent, below 50 dollars for the first time in about a year. Copper about 6.49 dollars a pound, about 14,290 dollars a tonne, weekly, up 0.1 percent. Natural gas about 2.90 dollars per million British thermal units.

USD/CAD about 1.3955 to 1.3974, loonie about 71.6 US cents, near a six week high. DXY about 101.65 to 101.92. US 10 year yield about 4.90 to 4.98 percent.

Rates now: Fed held 3.75 to 4.00 percent on October 28, 10 to 2, Cook and Hammack dissenting for a hike. BoC hiked to 2.50 percent on October 28, first hike since July 2023. ECB held 2.50 percent on October 29. BoJ held 1.25 percent on October 30. Next Fed and BoC decisions are both December 9.

RBA, Tuesday November 3, markets price about 90 percent odds of a hike to 4.85 percent.

Bank of England, Thursday November 5, widely expected to hike 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, its first rise since August 2023, after UK CPI hit 3.5 percent in September. The vote split and Monetary Policy Report matter as much as the decision.

Canada's federal budget, Thursday November 5, Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne tables Budget 2026 the same day as the BoE decision.

Binance reopened withdrawals Sunday, Bitcoin first, then 15 networks in phase one. Binance says it has now replaced about 95 percent of the about 6.3 billion dollars stolen October 29, up from 90 percent Saturday, with BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC fully backed. In the first 06:00 to 15:30 UTC window it processed 4.649 billion dollars of withdrawals against 1.01 billion dollars of deposits, a net outflow of about 3.64 billion dollars, about 2.1 percent of its reported 171 billion dollars in assets. Full zk-SNARK proof of reserves verification is still due November 3, so the recovery is proven in operation but not yet cryptographically verified. Attribution to North Korea's TraderTraitor group remains an analyst attribution, not a Binance or government confirmation.

Apple reports Monday after the close, the week's first big test. Consensus is about 112.95 billion dollars revenue, up 10.2 percent, and 1.98 dollars EPS, with gross margin guided at 47 to 48 percent, including about 1 point from tariff refunds. Watch the December quarter margin guide and iPhone supply comments more than the September quarter itself. It is John Ternus's first earnings call as CEO. Palantir also reports Monday after the close, guided about 2.16 billion dollars revenue, consensus slightly above.

Friday's drivers, unchanged: Intel down 28.6 percent on its fourth quarter guide, dragging chips down 7.2 percent. Amazon missed its third quarter and kept 2026 capex at 220 billion dollars with negative 42.4 billion dollars trailing free cash flow. Apple retook the world's most valuable company crown Friday at about 5.03 trillion dollars versus Nvidia's about 4.93 trillion dollars.

VERIFIED: Google, Microsoft and OpenAI AI training signal, announced Friday, reported November 1: the three said they will honor a single shared robots.txt line, __usage_ai-training, for AI training preferences. None supports it yet. Microsoft from February 1, 2027, and retires NoArchive and NoCache as training and grounding signals after March 1, 2027. Google aiming for early 2027, OpenAI within the next few months. This is a publisher control standard, not a product launch.

VERIFIED: Anthropic S-1, no new filing, but November 1 reporting sharpened two points: reporting based on the October 26 filing says Anthropic is marketing toward a 1.5 to 2 trillion dollar valuation for a November IPO. That valuation is secondhand reporting, not filing terms, as price range and share count remain blank. The October 26 filing is public on SEC EDGAR: Anthropic Form S-1. The filing also pledges 80 percent of the seven cofounders' personal stock to charity plus 5 percent of company equity to a public good fund. Experts quoted note the pledges are revocable and not necessarily legally binding.

REPORTED, NOT CONFIRMED: Nvidia and Nscale guarantee: a November 1 AI roundup reports Nvidia is discussing a multibillion dollar guarantee on a construction loan for an Nscale data centre Anthropic agreed to rent for 45 billion dollars, and that OpenAI cut its new funding round target from 30 billion dollars to 20 billion dollars. Both are discussions and reports, not signed deals. Watch whether the guarantee is actually signed.

No credible new big company whistleblower or leaked document story was found Sunday afternoon beyond the morning's items and the reported Salesforce and Rune deal, which stand unchanged. Low quality recycled leak roundups found in search were not used.

Rotation, not a broad crash, until Friday. Through Thursday, defensives and energy cushioned the tech slide. Friday broadened the pain, with tech down 4.24 percent and chips down 7.2 percent, but 6 of 11 S&P sectors still rose, led by energy up 1.91 percent and staples up 1.38 percent. Gains are narrow at the top. The pain is broad in growth, narrow in defensives.

The chain, unchanged and now cleaner: Hormuz risk, then oil up 15 percent in October, then inflation risk stays high, then central banks hold or hike, with the BoC already hiked and a December Fed hike still priced, then yields near 5 percent, then debt funded AI capex looks expensive, then Alphabet, Amazon and Intel are punished for cash burn and weak guides, then money rotates to refiners, staples and Apple, the big tech name spending least. Gold falling with stocks remains the tell: this is a rates and liquidity repricing, not a pure growth scare.

What changed versus the morning briefing: no market numbers, as markets were closed. What is new is Sunday's information flow: OPEC+ holding output, which removes one downside risk for oil and keeps the inflation leg of the chain intact; Binance's reopening holding up under a 3.64 billion dollar net outflow; and the AI training signal plus sharper Anthropic IPO reporting. None of it changes Friday's closes. All of it feeds Monday's open. US stock futures were set to resume Sunday evening. No verified Sunday evening futures level is reported here, so Monday's cash open is the first real read.