Friday's tech rout gets a tentative bounce, not a reversal

Friday, energy and defensives cushioned a tech led selloff, with the S&P 500 down 1.82 percent and the Nasdaq down 2.86 percent. Monday, falling oil is lifting tech futures and Seoul and China while dragging on oil heavy exposures. TSX futures are up only modestly, up 0.22 percent, despite the broader bounce, a classic tug of war for Canada.

Within tech the split persists: memory names, Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix, rebound premarket, but Japan's Kioxia plunged about 15 to 17 percent on a cautious outlook, so the market is still pricing AI spending case by case, not buying the whole theme back. Gold recovering toward 3,900 dollars while stocks bounce also fits a rates and liquidity repricing easing slightly, not a pure risk on day.

Japan: Nikkei 225 63,081.86, down 0.33 percent, Topix 3,930.28, down 0.88 percent. Kioxia's plunge offset a about 6 percent jump in Tokyo Electron. Tokyo is closed Tuesday for Culture Day.

Hong Kong: Hang Seng 23,393.32, up 0.42 percent, with Hang Seng Tech up about 2.25 percent. China: Shanghai Composite 3,638.03, up 1.08 percent, helped by PBOC and CSRC talk of buyback loan support.

Korea: KOSPI 5,859.08, up 2.24 percent, the day's strongest major, on institutional dip buying after a brutal October, down 16.19 percent for the month. India: Sensex 75,692.78, up 1.66 percent, Nifty 50 23,440.80, up 1.68 percent, with Reliance up 11.6 percent on record earnings. Australia: ASX 200 8,856.5, down 0.58 percent, miners and banks lower ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision. Westpac rose about 1 percent on a solid result.

Friday closes for context: DAX 25,818.21, down 0.85 percent; CAC 40 7,969.42, down 0.01 percent; FTSE 100 10,729.80, up 0.07 percent.

Monday morning: little changed and mixed. Early snapshots differ slightly by timing, with FTSE down 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent, and DAX and CAC roughly flat to up 0.1 percent, with the STOXX 600 marginally lower around 646.35. Fitch warning on France's debt outlook after the 2027 election is weighing on sentiment in Paris, and German September retail sales fell 2.0 percent month on month. The FTSE 100 was lower as oil slides.

Friday closes: S&P 500 7,580.07, down 1.82 percent; Nasdaq 25,437, down 2.86 percent; Dow 51,770.31, down 1.09 percent; S&P/TSX 35,620.03, down 1.74 percent, the steepest TSX drop since June.

Monday futures: Dow about up 0.5 to 0.6 percent, S&P 500 about up 0.5 percent, Nasdaq 100 about up 0.8 to 0.9 percent, with ranges reflecting different morning snapshots. Early US trade was firmer, VIX easing to about 19.1.

Canada: TSX futures up 0.22 percent, a steadier start after Friday's plunge, with cheaper oil easing inflation worries but pressuring energy earnings expectations. Loonie about 71.6 US cents, little changed.

Oil: Brent about 108.40 to 109.20 dollars, WTI about 99.25 to 100.10 dollars, both down roughly 4 percent, with WTI back below 100 dollars. Driver: reports Trump wants more time for diplomacy, and Iranian negotiators in Qatar discussing a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if US conditions are met. But no direct US talks are being held, and fresh tanker mine claims in the Strait mean this is a headline sensitive move, not a settlement.

Gold about 3,903 to 3,915 dollars, up about 0.4 to 0.6 percent; silver about 49.83 to 50.25 dollars, up about 1.4 to 2 percent; copper about 14,183 to 14,198 dollars a tonne, up about 0.4 percent. Natural gas about 2.91 dollars per million British thermal units, up 0.24 percent in the morning trade setup. Other quotes ran higher, so treat the level as approximate.

FX: USD/CAD about 1.397 to 1.398, DXY about 101.65 to 101.97, little changed, USD/JPY about 157.9, yen still weak despite the BoJ's more hawkish tone last week, EUR/USD about 1.117 to 1.121.

Current: Fed held 3.75 to 4.00 percent on October 28, two dissents for a hike. BoC hiked to 2.50 percent on October 28. ECB held 2.50 percent on October 29. BoJ held 1.25 percent on October 30. Next Fed and BoC decisions are both December 9. Markets price about 72.8 percent odds of a December Fed hike.

This week: RBA Tuesday November 3, widely expected to hike 4.60 percent to 4.85 percent, 80 to 90 percent priced after September CPI hit 4.3 percent. Bank of England Thursday November 5, widely expected up 25 basis points to 4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023. BoJ September meeting minutes also due Thursday. US 10 year about 4.93 percent.

Estee Lauder beat big before the open: 0.72 dollars versus 0.52 dollars expected, revenue 3.72 billion dollars, and raised full year guidance. Adjusted EPS guide 3.20 to 3.45 dollars, up from 3.10 to 3.35 dollars.

Marriott mixed but rewarded: 3.02 dollars versus about 2.85 to 2.87 dollars expected, revenue 7.01 billion dollars slightly light, but raised full year RevPAR guidance to 4.5 to 5 percent and shares rose about 5 percent early.

After the close today: Apple, consensus about 1.98 dollars EPS on about 112.95 to 113.39 billion dollars revenue, John Ternus's first call as CEO, with the December quarter margin guide the key read. Plus Palantir, about 2.16 to 2.18 billion dollars revenue expected.

Reliance drove India: up 11.6 percent, its best day since April 2020. Note a reporting split to avoid overstating one figure: profit attributable to owners was 25,548 crore rupees, up 40.6 percent year on year, while consolidated PAT was reported at 29,550 crore rupees, up 33.8 percent year on year. Different measures, same record quarter story, led by refining and telecom.

Marvell to buy Lumentum in a 115 billion dollar all stock deal. Lumentum separately reported first quarter revenue 1.26 billion dollars, up 136.5 percent year on year. Premarket memory rebound: Micron up about 2.7 percent, SanDisk up about 3 percent, SK Hynix up about 5 percent. Okta up 3.6 percent on joining the S&P 500, replacing Kenvue. Canada: Toromont Industries and Topaz Energy report after the close today. Shopify and Suncor report Tuesday.

VERIFIED: Anthropic amended S-1 filed Monday: third quarter revenue about 17 billion dollars, 12 times year on year, third quarter net loss 23.3 billion dollars, nine month losses 104 billion dollars, and about 895.4 billion dollars in purchase and lease commitments, mostly AI compute. The scale of the commitments, not just the revenue growth, is the new information.

VERIFIED: Anthropic Japan filing Monday: up to 552.9 billion yen, about 3.5 billion dollars, of shares to Japanese investors as part of its US listing. The filing does not state the IPO's total size or valuation, and the about 1.5 trillion dollar valuation figure remains investor discussion, not filing terms.

VERIFIED: Marvell and Lumentum definitive agreement, company press release, November 2: all stock, 4.500 Marvell shares per Lumentum share, about 1,132 dollars per share, about 23.9 percent premium to October 28 unaffected prices, close expected first half 2028, subject to shareholder votes and regulators.

VERIFIED: PBOC shifts its policy anchor to the overnight rate, with daily overnight reverse repos at a fixed 1.25 percent. A framework change, not a rate cut.

REPORTED, NOT CONFIRMED: SpaceX is reported to be in talks to buy Boost Mobile or use its network. EchoStar shares rose about 7 percent premarket on the report. No company confirmation.

REPORTED: UK grid operator NESO: an independent inquiry into whistleblower cover up claims found significant cultural and governance problems but no evidence for the central claims of corporate influence over operations or suppression of blackout risk concerns. A separate Ofgem investigation runs to March 31, 2027.

No new verified big company blog post, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia or OpenAI, was found this morning beyond the items above. The November 1 OpenAI funding and AI training signal stories stand unchanged from Sunday evening and are not repeated as new.