Jobs surge past forecasts as Asia plunges and futures split

Iran has sent the United States a proposal concerning its nuclear programme through Qatar, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday, and the official said Washington was reviewing it but declined to describe its contents. The same day, Iran's top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said in Moscow after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin that Tehran had communicated seven conditions to Washington and would neither negotiate nor reopen the Strait of Hormuz until they were met. The conditions named in the reporting are the lifting of United States sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and war reparations, with the other four not listed in the reports read. Washington has said nuclear issues must be part of any initial negotiations, and the United States has not publicly confirmed receipt or review of the proposal.

A separate Axios report, as carried in the same coverage, described a draft arrangement under discussion by Qatari mediators, Iran, and the White House under which the Strait would reopen before nuclear talks resumed and Iran would invite the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect bombed nuclear sites. That draft is reported, not confirmed, and it is not clear whether it is the same proposal the Iranian official said had been sent through Qatar. A proposal being reviewed is not an agreement, and a sequence discussed by mediators may not represent the final position of either government. For markets, the distinction is the whole story: oil swung above $100 on the diplomacy headlines and faded as the conditions hardened, and the Strait stays closed until Tehran's terms are met, in Rezaei's own words.

Asia's Friday closes show the artificial intelligence rout at its worst so far. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 3,643.13 points, or 5.96 percent, to 57,434.77, its third-largest single-day point loss on record and its lowest close since April 13, after falling more than 7 percent intraday to 56,745.81. The index is now about 21 percent below its June record peak, in bear market territory, and has fallen 11.17 percent over five straight sessions. Only three of its 225 constituents rose. The broader Topix fell 5.90 percent to 3,707.99, with 98 percent of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Prime Market declining. SoftBank fell 10.83 percent to 3,549 yen and chipmaker Kioxia fell 8.72 percent to 8,511 yen. South Korea's KOSPI fell 6.02 percent to 5,059.69, after plunging more than 8 percent intraday to 4,911.28 and triggering a 20-minute trading halt, its 11th circuit breaker this year, with weekly losses of 12 percent. Samsung fell 6.35 percent and SK Hynix fell 10.44 percent, and the KOSDAQ fell 5.03 percent to 644.27. Taiwan's Taiex fell 4.50 percent to 39,701.64, its biggest daily percentage loss since July, with TSMC down 4.7 percent.

China and Hong Kong fell less, and India went the other way entirely. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.10 percent to 3,649.18, the Shenzhen Component fell 2.57 percent to 11,175.78, the ChiNext fell 3.96 percent to 2,465.23, and the CSI 300 fell 1.44 percent to 4,054.28, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.27 percent to 24,481.86 and its technology index fell 1.8 percent. Australia's ASX 200 slipped 0.50 percent to 9,020.80, and Singapore's Straits Times Index was last down 2.9 percent. India's Sensex jumped 2.17 percent to 81,028.02 and the Nifty 50 rose 2.01 percent to 25,030.35, its first close above 25,000 since February 27, extending a seven-session winning streak and a weekly gain of about 9 percent, with the rupee near 93.90 per dollar, a six-month high. Charu Chanana, Saxo Markets' chief investment strategist, said Asia is particularly vulnerable to an artificial intelligence-led correction because investors are so heavily positioned in the same beneficiaries of the boom, while ANZ Research analysts noted that Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and is unlikely to relinquish that control, which is why the early hopes of a quick end to the war have evaporated.

Europe opened lower and the slide deepened through the morning. In a snapshot at about 09:20 GMT, the FTSE 100 traded at 10,632.29, down 1.39 percent, the DAX at 25,971.76, down 1.34 percent, the CAC 40 at 8,117.67, down 1.07 percent, the STOXX Europe 600 at 646.97, down 1.21 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,173.50, down 0.93 percent. By 11:43 GMT the FTSE 100 had fallen 2.2 percent to 10,540.78, on track for its worst session since mid-March, and the STOXX 600 stood at 644.12, down 1.64 percent, on the Journal's 9:03 a.m. ET ticker, its steepest one-day drop since July. The STOXX 600 had fallen 1 percent to 648.83 by 09:19 GMT, wiping out its gains for the week, with technology shares leading the declines across the region. Thursday's European closes, for context, were the FTSE 100 at 10,782.66, down 0.43 percent, the DAX at 26,325.01, down 0.43 percent, and the CAC 40 at 8,205.37, up 0.34 percent.

Traders had priced about a 70 percent chance of a December rate increase before the jobs report, per the CME FedWatch tool, down from 82.7 percent on Wednesday after Thursday's rout, and the hot print reinforced those bets, according to the Reuters snapshot. Goldman Sachs economists still expect a second and final hike in December, taking the federal funds target range to 4.00 percent to 4.25 percent, followed by a pause and rate cuts from late 2027 to early 2028. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent at its October meeting on a 10 to 2 vote, with two officials backing a hike on the spot. The next decision is due December 9, and one more jobs report, on December 4, and October consumer prices, on Tuesday, November 10, arrive before it.

Canada's report pointed the other way. Statistics Canada reported employment fell by 4,700 in October, against 13,600 expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent from 6.5 percent, its second consecutive monthly increase, with 33,000 more people looking for work. The employment rate fell to 60.5 percent, private sector employment fell 53,000, its first decline since February, while public sector employment rose 50,000, and wholesale and retail trade shed 29,000 jobs. Average hourly wages rose 2.2 percent over the year to $37.89. The United States dollar traded near 1.4100 Canadian dollars after the release, up about 0.6 percent on the day, putting the loonie near 71.0 cents in United States terms, after trading near 1.4073 before the reports. The Bank of Canada, which raised its overnight rate to 2.50 percent on October 28, also decides on December 9.

Yields rose after the jobs data. The 10 year Treasury yield traded at 4.870 percent on the Journal's 9:03 a.m. ET snapshot, up from Thursday's close of 4.8408 percent, while the dollar index rose to a one-week high of 102.05, according to Tradeweb via Dow Jones Newswires. The 2 year yield held near 4.47 percent. In Europe, the 10 year German Bund yield fell to 3.208 percent, its lowest since late August, while the 10 year United Kingdom gilt yield rose to 5.156 percent. The euro traded near $1.117, sterling near $1.340, and the yen near 157.4 to the dollar at its strongest, after touching a one-week high. The Bank of England's next decision is December 17, after Thursday's hike to 4 percent, and the European Central Bank's deposit rate stands at 2.50 percent.

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel early on Friday, rising 1.7 percent in the Asian session, then faded to $98.40, up 0.11 percent, on the Journal's 9:03 a.m. ET ticker, and to $97.55, down 0.8 percent, by 08:26 GMT, according to Reuters. January Brent futures had traded at $99.58 at 05:04 GMT, up 1.31 percent from Thursday's $98.29 settlement. West Texas Intermediate traded at $91.00 at 9:03 a.m. ET, up 0.53 percent from Thursday's $90.52 settlement. The week still belongs to the sellers: Brent is on track for a 16 percent weekly decline, its steepest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its biggest in absolute terms in LSEG data going back to 1988, while West Texas Intermediate is set for a decline of more than 13 percent. JPMorgan estimated that supply exceeded demand by 1.1 million barrels a day in September, with the surplus widening to 1.4 million in October.

Metals split with the equities. Spot gold fell 1.1 percent to $4,044.09 an ounce at 05:01 UTC, according to Reuters, while December United States gold futures traded at $4,053.30, and gold stood at $4,059.80 on the Journal's 9:03 a.m. ET ticker. Gold remains on track for its biggest weekly gain since August, up more than 5 percent for the week. Silver traded near $52.07 an ounce at 8:00 a.m. ET, up about 0.6 percent, and copper traded near $6.27 a pound, little changed from Thursday's $6.2490 settlement. Natural gas futures reclaimed $3.00 per million British thermal units early on Friday, near $3.005 at 11:23 UTC, up about 2 percent from Thursday's $2.947 close, on colder forecast revisions. Bitcoin traded near $75,792 on the Journal's ticker, down 0.35 percent, close to Thursday's late-session level near $75,861.

The chip names that fell hardest on Thursday led the premarket rebound. Nvidia gained 3.6 percent before the open, and AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and Micron rose between 5 percent and 8.3 percent, while SanDisk jumped more than 12 percent. Iren, a neocloud name, jumped 18 percent in premarket trading, and CoreWeave rebounded, with Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, Nebius, Alphabet, Meta, GE Vernova, Vertiv, and Eaton all gaining before the open, according to the Journal's live page. The rebound is a partial one: on Thursday, Nvidia fell 9.26 percent to $181.60, AMD fell 17.26 percent to $404.40, Intel fell 10.33 percent to $52.25, Broadcom fell 10.43 percent to $291.53, and the PHLX Semiconductor index plunged 12.25 percent to 9,011.14.

AppLovin reported third-quarter revenue of $2.18 billion, up 55.5 percent, with fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $2.38 billion, above the $2.25 billion expected, and net income of $1.44 billion, up 72 percent, and the shares rose 31.04 percent on Thursday to $356.10, before easing to $351.21 in premarket trading on Friday, down 1.37 percent from the close. Magnite rose 20.75 percent and Unity rose 14.93 percent on their own results on Thursday. Moderna reported third-quarter revenue of $1.313 billion, up 29 percent from a year earlier and well above the roughly $885 million expected, with net income of $162 million against a $200 million loss a year earlier and earnings of $0.38 a share against a $1.25 loss expected, and raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to 15 percent to 25 percent, from up to 10 percent previously, on stronger COVID vaccine sales in overseas markets. The shares bounced in premarket trading on Friday after falling 6.55 percent on Thursday to $241.46.

Airbnb surged more than 10 percent in premarket trading after raising its outlook, building on a roughly 10 percent after-hours gain on Thursday, while DraftKings fell in premarket trading after cutting its outlook on prediction-market costs, according to the Journal's live page. Vistra, Oklo, and TeraWulf report today, after falling 6.15 percent, 13.20 percent, and 13.85 percent respectively on Thursday, and the power names will test whether the market still pays for artificial intelligence infrastructure or only for the revenue it already produces. In Canada, the S&P/TSX fell 2.03 percent on Thursday with energy the only sector in positive territory, and Friday's weak Canadian jobs report and a softer loonie set a cautious tone for Toronto's open.

Compare Friday morning to the last seven sessions and the shape is a rally, then a rout, then a split. Friday, October 30, was a tech-led fall: the Nasdaq down 2.86 percent, the S&P 500 down 1.82 percent, and the Dow down 1.09 percent. Monday split the tape, with the Dow up 0.41 percent and technology down. Tuesday split it again, with the Nasdaq up 0.83 percent and the S&P 500 up 0.36 percent, but the Dow down 0.38 percent and Toronto down 0.75 percent. Wednesday reversed the split and then some, with every major index rising together and the Dow up 3.03 percent. Thursday reversed Wednesday by more, with the Dow down 3.44 percent, the S&P 500 down 4.36 percent in its worst day since April 2025, and the Nasdaq down 5.52 percent into correction. Friday, so far, reverses Thursday only in part and only in one place: the Nasdaq futures rebound while the Dow futures fall, Asia's chip markets enter bear markets, and India rallies on its own.

The chain linking the drivers runs in order. First, politics: the midterm sweep first lifted broad equities on gridlock, then turned on the chip and data center trade as oversight was priced in, and on Friday the chip leg is doing the work in both directions, down hardest in Asia and bouncing hardest in United States premarket trading. Second, oil: Brent's fall from its Friday intraday high of $117.64 to Wednesday's $94.62 close is a drop of about $23 in five sessions, and Friday's swing above $100 and back below it shows the floor is set by diplomacy headlines, not by inventories. Third, rates: a hot jobs report on a morning of falling equities is the hardest combination for the Federal Reserve's December decision, because strong hiring and strong wages argue for the hike that the equity market has spent the week fearing, while Canada's weak report argues the opposite for the Bank of Canada on the same day. Fourth, earnings: AppLovin, Moderna, Airbnb, and Cloudflare all beat, and the market is now paying for revenue already booked, not for the infrastructure spending that might produce it later.

What would change the reading is the open. If the chip rebound holds through the regular session, Friday reads as a positioning unwind after an oversold week, the kind Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott described as hedge funds rushing to lock in profits before year-end. If the hot jobs print lifts yields back toward 5 percent, the rebound fades and the December hike becomes the headwind rather than the backdrop. If the Strait of Hormuz produces a confirmed escalation, oil's $98 level becomes a floor to test, not a relief to enjoy. Tuesday's consumer price index is the next inflation test, and it arrives before the Federal Reserve decides on December 9.